FX Market Recap
Despite the fact, this week’s economic calendar is light on the first-tier figures; there are numerous macro-events which could see well-established chart points in the major crosses tested, or breached.
Over the last few days, both the U.S. and China have announced weaker figures for manufacturing production and retail sales. In reply, it’s likely that the PBoC will publish additional stimulus, while the FED is persistently on hold.
This division in monetary policy could place upside pressure to the USD/CNH, which grew around 3% in the last ten days and putting a six-month high of 6.9475 into Friday’s New York close.
Gold Steady Over Support - What Next to Expect?
On Monday, gold price was trading flat in Asia due to the increase in U.S. dollar. Gold Futures for June delivery, traded on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, was unchanged at $1,276.15.
Gold price slipped on Friday, more than the two weeks, due to the surge in the U.S. dollar over U.S. consumer sentiment. The U.S. consumer sentiment was at a 15-year high lately.
Gold prices also eased over after China state-run media showed excitement about the progress of trade agreement with Washington and also supported the dollar.
Gold - Technical Analysis
Technically, gold is trading below the 50 and 20 EMA, dropping back from a bullish channel resistance of 1290. Right now, gold is testing the mid-August 2018 major uptrend’s support line for a third time this month at 1275. A break of this support can open further selling trend until 1266. On the flip side, gold may face resistance at 1286 and 1,292 today.
R3: 1308.79
R2: 1294.65
R1: 1286.14
Key Trading Level: 1280.52
S1: 1272.01
S2: 1266.39
S3: 1252.26
Gold - Trade Tips
Consider staying bearish below 1,280 as the violation of 1,275 may extend bearish trend until 1,266.
Crude Oil - Sideways Channel Breakout In Focus
Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih said on Sunday there was an agreement between OPEC and allied oil producers to turn down crude inventories “slightly”, but his country would continue responsive to the needs of what he called a weak market.
Secondly, OPEC, Russia and other non-member producers, an organization known as OPEC+, agreed to decrease production by 1.2 million barrels per day from Jan. 1 for six months. A purpose behind deal intended is that to inventories building up and reducing prices.
Moreover, Falih also reported that the market was very weak with opposing data as a concern about supply interruptions while inventories increase, but this is very compulsory that comfortable supply situation should be seen in weeks upcoming months.
Crude Oil - Technical Analysis
Technical outlook has turned bullish as crude oil has violated the sideways channel. On the hourly chart, crude oil has formed a bullish engulfing pattern which is keeping crude oil bullish over 63. Besides that, crude oil has breached the upper range of 63. With this, crude oil has a high potential to go after 64 and 64.45 trading levels.
R3: 65.34
R2: 64.23
R1: 63.55
Key Trading Level: 63.12
S1: 62.44
S2: 62.01
S3: 60.9
Crude Oil - Trade Tips
Consider staying bullish over $63.10 to target 64.45 today. All the best!
